TUMAKURU/BENGALURU: Though both rival parties confidently assert their candidate would sail through, complex
caste equations
, dissension, a laidback approach among party cadres and emotional issues are likely to determine the outcome in
Tumkur parliamentary constituency
.
A fierce electoral battle is under way between BJP’s
V Somanna
and
Congress
candidate SP Muddahanumegowda.
Surfing high on the alliance with JD(S), Somanna is eyeing consolidation of Vokkaliga and
Lingayat
votes and is banking on PM Modi’s progressive works and a strong undercurrent of
Hindutva ideology
.
Congress is determined to wrest the seat through Vokkaliga and AHINDA votes, its guarantee schemes and the personal track record of Muddahanumegowda as an MP from 2014 to 2019.
Historically, Tumkur was a Congress bastion between 1952 and 1989 with the party winning 10 consecutive terms. However, the district’s affinity with the grand old party fizzled out subsequently with BJP winning five of the eight elections held since 1991.
Insider vs outsider | Initially, the constituency was agog with an ‘insider vs outsider’ debate as Somanna is a Bengalurean. All outsiders who contested from here — in 1962, 1996, 2009, 2014 and even former PM HD Deve Gowda in 2019 — lost.
But seasoned politician Somanna has been able to blunt the outsider campaign by striking a strong bond with the electorate and community leaders through his work with popular mutts in the district.
“If I were an outsider, why did Siddaramaiah contest from Badami or Rahul Gandhi from Wayanad? I have more of a
Tumakuru
connection than anyone else as it has shaped my career,” Somanna said at a rally.
Amid the high-decibel campaign by both political parties, growing disgruntlement among local members of both parties could wreck plans. These rifts run deep, especially within Congress. A senior Congress functionary from Tumakuru confessed that there is very little support in Tiptur, Kunchitiga Vokkaliga regions of Chikkanayakanahalli, Koratagere and Tumakuru Rural and Kadugolla voters of Gubbi and Turuvekere taluks.
Congress workers also feel the absence of cooperation minister KN Rajanna, who is busy working for the party’s victory in Hassan.
River water issues | The
Hemavathi river
, a lifeline for most of Tumakuru district, is central to local politics. In 2019, an old video of Deve Gowda refusing to release
Hemavathi
water to Tumakuru was widely shared during the election, contributing heavily to his defeat.
This year too, the issue is at the fore with deputy chief minister DK Shivakumar, who holds the water resources portfolio, and his MP brother DK Suresh deciding to divert water to Magadi via Kunigal. A foundation laying ceremony for the Hemavathi Express Link Canal was held recently and it has left half of Tumakuru district agitated.
Suresh Gowda, Tumakuru Rural MLA, even warned the state govt that the decision could lead to bloodshed. The link canal controversy could come to haunt Congress.
Cadre connect | JD(S) workers appear to be aggressively campaigning for the NDA candidate, while BJP and Congress workers seem laid-back. BJP cadres are hopeful that the popularity of Modi, Ram Mandir, Hindutva and the success of the Jal Jivan Mission (Har Ghar Gange) will work in their favour, while Congress workers are confident that the guarantee programmes will turn the tide.
Somanna appears to have struck a rapport with party cadre, while Muddahanumegowda’s failure to mentor leadership and cadres during his tenure as MP and his switching sides at crucial times could hurt him.
BJP is wooing the six lakh Lingayat and Vokkaliga voters and Congress is banking on five lakh SC and ST, two lakh Kuruba and 2.5 lakh minority votes. However, minor castes like Uppara, Tigala, Madivala and Gollas hold the key. Caste equations could give Congress the edge, but emotional issues including Hindutva and factional feuds could upset calculations.
Political circles in the district are abuzz with talk of some leaders in Bengaluru working extensively for Somanna’s defeat, but BJP is countering the move with incumbent party MP GS Basavaraju leveraging his experience to swing last-minute votes in favour of Somanna.
English (US) ·