Panaji: The southwest
monsoon
arrived in Kerala a day earlier than usual, on May 30, making meteorologists and other experts expect rains in Goa before their regular schedule.
M R Ramesh Kumar, a meteorologist and retired scientist of the National Institute of Oceanography, said Goa could experience an early monsoon onset if its progress remains uninterrupted.
“Goa is set to receive normal to excess rainfall during the 2024 monsoon. This can be attributed to various atmospheric phenomena, including the formation of
La Nina
in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during the latter half of the monsoon,” Kumar said.
The La Nina phenomenon typically enhances rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, including Goa, leading to normal to excess precipitation. The occurrence of another phenomenon known as the Indian Ocean Dipole could further boost rainfall across the subcontinent, including Goa, if it turns positive. “These favourable ocean-atmospheric conditions are conducive to a promising monsoon this year,” Kumar said.
Reflecting on the past trends, Kumar noted instances in which the monsoon onset in Goa has deviated from the norm. In 2012, the onset occurred a day after the usual date, while in other years such as 2016, 2019, and 2022, delays were observed due to the prevailing conditions over the land and the surrounding seas.
IMD-Goa director Nahush Kulkarni said that the department will announce the onset date 24 hours prior to the arrival of the southwest monsoon in the state.
The monsoon has progressed to various northeastern states, after landing in Kerala. On Thursday, the monsoon made inroads into northeastern India, encompassing Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, and substantial parts of Tripura, Meghalaya, and Assam.
The IMD’s latest forecast indicates that light rain is likely to persist in the state until June 2. Nevertheless, residents and authorities in Goa have been advised to remain vigilant as the IMD has issued a yellow alert for June 3.
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